The spatial distribution of economic base multipliers: A GIS and spatial statistics-based cluster analysis

Empirical studies on the economic base multiplier concept have been highly limited in their spatial scope. The aim of this research is to provide new insights into the study of base multipliers by examining their spatial distribution over space. Base multipliers pertaining to the 923 districts in Turkey, varying between 1,268 and 807,934 in population, are estimated for the year 2000 using aggregate level data. The minimum requirements method is applied following the altering samples approach. The base multiplier estimates are normally distributed and vary between 1.229 and 4.883, with a mean of 2.269. In order to assess whether the districts with similar base multipliers form clusters, two widely used tools of spatial autocorrelation is applied: (1) Moran’s I index and (2) Getis and Ord analysis. The results show that the base multipliers form clusters of high and low values. They are neither randomly nor uniformly distributed over space, and the results are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The results confirm that high base multipliers cluster in and around higher order central places